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I bought a number of energy stocks in mid-2018, and NR is an example of numerous mistakes with these trades. My impatience and cognitive bias were the root cause.
The first chart is the weekly chart of the action in the stock for some perspective. The second zone of consolidation had me convinced it was a BUA that would eventually produce an up-trending stock. Instead, it turned out to be a distribution structure. Even with this error, the trade could have generated a small profit rather than a small loss with better execution.
The daily chart below shows the POE’s in more detail. POE #1 would have been improved with an entry around the Sbar after the test of the early February spring. Either POE #1a or #1b (light blue on the chart) would have been efficient, with an SL below the early February low. Actual POE #1 would have been OK as an add as a POE #2 although somewhere on the combo bar would have been ideal. My actual POE #2 was a no-no – buying immediately upon the breakout above TR resistance on an SOS rally… My exit was OK, but could have also been improved. Recognizing the June 27 local UT, and the July 10 failed attempt to commit higher would have been more efficient.
My bias upon entering this trade was obviously bullish. Recognizing a change in bias when I am committed to a trade is a mental challenge that requires flexibility and the ability to constantly question my assumptions. The borders of a TR is where these assumptions are most vulnerable and need to be carefully examined.
Post-trade analysis is extremely helpful. I will work on being more patient and analytical.
I am not afraid of making mistakes. Everybody does it. I will take the lessons learned and improve my future trading results.
Trade with (not against) institutions!
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